The figure shows the number ILI cases per 1,000 reported in Italy each week from October, 22, 2023 through March, 24, 2024 and forecasted new weekly ILI cases per 1,000 through April, 21, 2024.
- Incidence of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) continues to decrease compared to the previous week. The Influcast ensemble predicts a stable epidemic activity in the coming weeks. This trajectory is anticipated across all regions.
- At the national level, ILI incidence per 1,000 for the weeks ending on:
- 2024-03-31 is projected to range from 4.5 to 6.0
- 2024-04-07 is projected to range from 3.8 to 6.3
- 2024-04-14 is projected to range from 3.3 to 6.5
- 2024-04-21 is projected to range from 3.1 to 6.6
- This week, 5 modelling groups contributed 8 independent forecasting models on Influcast. Contributing teams:
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Queen Mary University of London
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure shows the number ILI cases per 1,000 reported in Italy each week from October, 22, 2023 through March, 17, 2024 and forecasted new weekly ILI cases per 1,000 through April, 14, 2024.
- Incidence of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) continues to decrease compared to the previous week. The Influcast ensemble predicts a diminishing trend in epidemic activity in the coming weeks, with indications of a potential leveling off in the trend. This trajectory is anticipated across all regions.
- At the national level, ILI incidence per 1,000 for the weeks ending on:
- 2024-03-24 is projected to range from 4.3 to 5.5
- 2024-03-31 is projected to range from 3.5 to 5.5
- 2024-04-07 is projected to range from 3.1 to 5.5
- 2024-04-14 is projected to range from 2.8 to 5.6
- This week, 4 modelling groups contributed 7 independent forecasting models on Influcast. Contributing teams:
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Queen Mary University of London
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure shows the number ILI cases per 1,000 reported in Italy each week from October, 22, 2023 through March, 10, 2024 and forecasted new weekly ILI cases per 1,000 through April, 07, 2024.
- Incidence of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) continues to decrease compared to the previous week. The Influcast ensemble predicts a diminishing trend in epidemic activity in the coming weeks, with indications of a potential leveling off in the trend. This trajectory is anticipated across all regions.
- At the national level, ILI incidence per 1,000 for the weeks ending on:
- 2024-03-17 is projected to range from 5.4 to 6.8
- 2024-03-24 is projected to range from 4.8 to 6.9
- 2024-03-31 is projected to range from 4.3 to 6.9
- 2024-04-07 is projected to range from 3.9 to 6.9
- This week, 5 modelling groups contributed 8 independent forecasting models on Influcast. Contributing teams:
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Queen Mary University of London
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure shows the number ILI cases per 1,000 reported in Italy each week from October, 22, 2023 through March, 03, 2024 and forecasted new weekly ILI cases per 1,000 through March, 31, 2024.
- Incidence of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) continues to decrease compared to the previous week. The Influcast ensemble predicts a diminishing trend in epidemic activity in the coming weeks, with indications of a potential leveling off in the trend. This trajectory is anticipated across all regions.
- At the national level, ILI incidence per 1,000 for the weeks ending on:
- 2024-03-10 is projected to range from 5.3 to 6.6
- 2024-03-17 is projected to range from 4.5 to 6.4
- 2024-03-24 is projected to range from 3.9 to 6.3
- 2024-03-31 is projected to range from 3.5 to 6.4
- This week, 5 modelling groups contributed 8 independent forecasting models on Influcast. Contributing teams:
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Queen Mary University of London
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure shows the number ILI cases per 1,000 reported in Italy each week from October, 22, 2023 through February, 25, 2024 and forecasted new weekly ILI cases per 1,000 through March, 24, 2024.
- Incidence of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) continues to decrease compared to the previous week. The Influcast ensemble predicts a diminishing trend in epidemic activity in the coming weeks. This downward trajectory is anticipated across all regions.
- At the national level, ILI incidence per 1,000 for the weeks ending on:
- 2024-03-03 is projected to range from 6.3 to 8.1
- 2024-03-10 is projected to range from 5.3 to 7.9
- 2024-03-17 is projected to range from 4.6 to 7.8
- 2024-03-24 is projected to range from 3.8 to 8.1
- This week, 5 modelling groups contributed 8 independent forecasting models on Influcast. Contributing teams:
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Queen Mary University of London
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure shows the number ILI cases per 1,000 reported in Italy each week from October, 22, 2023 through February, 18, 2024 and forecasted new weekly ILI cases per 1,000 through March, 17, 2024.
- Incidence of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) continues to decrease compared to the previous week. The Influcast ensemble predicts a diminishing trend in epidemic activity in the coming weeks. This downward trajectory is anticipated across all regions.
- At the national level, ILI incidence per 1,000 for the weeks ending on:
- 2024-02-25 is projected to range from 5.9 to 8.0
- 2024-03-03 is projected to range from 4.8 to 7.3
- 2024-03-10 is projected to range from 4.8 to 7.3
- 2024-03-17 is projected to range from 3.7 to 6.7
- This week, 5 modelling groups contributed 8 independent forecasting models on Influcast. Contributing teams:
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Queen Mary University of London
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure shows the number ILI cases per 1,000 reported in Italy each week from October, 22, 2023 through February, 11, 2024 and forecasted new weekly ILI cases per 1,000 through March, 10, 2024.
- Incidence of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) continues to decrease compared to the previous week, although there are indications of a potential leveling off in the trend. The Influcast ensemble predicts a diminishing trend in epidemic activity in the coming weeks. This downward trajectory is anticipated across all regions.
- At the national level, ILI incidence per 1,000 for the weeks ending on:
- 2024-02-18 is projected to range from 6.6 to 9.4
- 2024-02-25 is projected to range from 5.7 to 8.9
- 2024-03-03 is projected to range from 5.0 to 8.5
- 2024-03-10 is projected to range from 4.3 to 8.2
- This week, 5 modelling groups contributed 8 independent forecasting models on Influcast. Contributing teams:
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Queen Mary University of London
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure shows the number ILI cases per 1,000 reported in Italy each week from October, 22, 2023 through February, 04, 2024 and forecasted new weekly ILI cases per 1,000 through March, 03, 2024.
- Incidence of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) continues to decrease compared to the previous week, although there are indications of a potential leveling off in the trend. The Influcast ensemble predicts a diminishing trend in epidemic activity in the coming weeks. This downward trajectory is anticipated across all regions.
- At the national level, ILI incidence per 1,000 for the weeks ending on:
- 2024-02-11 is projected to range from 5.4 to 9.7
- 2024-02-18 is projected to range from 4.4 to 8.8
- 2024-02-25 is projected to range from 3.1 to 7.9
- 2024-03-03 is projected to range from 2.1 to 7.2
- This week, 5 modelling groups contributed 7 independent forecasting models on Influcast. Contributing teams:
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Queen Mary University of London
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure shows the number ILI cases per 1,000 reported in Italy each week from October, 22, 2023 through January, 28, 2024 and forecasted new weekly ILI cases per 1,000 through February, 25, 2024.
- Incidence of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) continues to decrease compared to the previous week. The Influcast ensemble predicts a diminishing trend in epidemic activity in the coming weeks. This downward trajectory is anticipated across all regions.
- At the national level, ILI incidence per 1,000 for the weeks ending on:
- 2024-02-04 is projected to range from 6.2 to 9.6
- 2024-02-11 is projected to range from 4.4 to 8.3
- 2024-02-18 is projected to range from 3.2 to 7.3
- 2024-02-25 is projected to range from 2.4 to 6.5
- This week, 4 modelling groups contributed 7 independent forecasting models on Influcast. Contributing teams:
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Queen Mary University of London
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure shows the number ILI cases per 1,000 reported in Italy each week from October, 22, 2023 through January, 21, 2024 and forecasted new weekly ILI cases per 1,000 through February, 18, 2024.
- Incidence of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) continues to decrease compared to the previous week. The Influcast ensemble predicts a diminishing trend in epidemic activity in the coming weeks. This downward trajectory is anticipated across all regions.
- At the national level, ILI incidence per 1,000 for the weeks ending on:
- 2024-01-28 is projected to range from 8.0 to 11.4
- 2024-02-04 is projected to range from 5.9 to 10.0
- 2024-02-11 is projected to range from 4.2 to 8.8
- 2024-02-18 is projected to range from 3.0 to 7.8
- This week, 5 modelling groups contributed 8 independent forecasting models on Influcast. Contributing teams:
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Queen Mary University of London
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure shows the number ILI cases per 1,000 reported in Italy each week from October, 22, 2023 through January, 14, 2024 and forecasted new weekly ILI cases per 1,000 through February, 11, 2024.
- Incidence of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) continues to decrease compared to the previous week. The Influcast ensemble predicts a diminishing trend in epidemic activity in the coming weeks. This downward trajectory is anticipated across all regions.
- At the national level, ILI incidence per 1,000 for the weeks ending on:
- 2024-01-21 is projected to range from 8.8 to 13.6
- 2024-01-28 is projected to range from 6.3 to 11.8
- 2024-02-04 is projected to range from 4.5 to 10.2
- 2024-02-11 is projected to range from 3.5 to 9.1
- This week, 5 modelling groups contributed 8 independent forecasting models on Influcast. Contributing teams:
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Queen Mary University of London
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure shows the number ILI cases per 1,000 reported in Italy each week from October, 22, 2023 through January, 7, 2024 and forecasted new weekly ILI cases per 1,000 through February, 4, 2024.
- We observe a decrease in the incidence of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) compared to the previous week, supporting the hypothesis that we have surpassed the seasonal peak. The Influcast ensemble predicts a diminishing trend in epidemic activity in the coming weeks, with the likelihood of reaching moderate to low intensity levels by February 4, 2024. This downward trajectory is anticipated across all regions.
- At the national level, ILI incidence per 1,000 for the weeks ending on:
- 2024-01-14 is projected to range from 12.7 to 16.6
- 2024-01-21 is projected to range from 10.3 to 15.0
- 2024-01-28 is projected to range from 8.2 to 13.6
- 2024-02-04 is projected to range from 6.5 to 12.1
- This week, 5 modelling groups contributed 8 independent forecasting models on Influcast. Contributing teams:
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Queen Mary University of London
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure shows the number ILI cases per 1,000 reported in Italy each week from October, 22 through December, 31, 2023 and forecasted new weekly ILI cases per 1,000 through January, 28, 2024.
- We observe a reduction in ILI (Influenza-Like Illness) activity compared to the previous week. The Influcast Ensemble forecast suggests that we might have reached the seasonal peak, anticipating a subsequent decrease in ILI incidence in the coming weeks. Concurrently, epidemic activity is projected to diminish across the majority of regions.
- At the national level, ILI incidence per 1,000 for the weeks ending on:
- 2024-01-07 is projected to range from 14.7 to 19.0
- 2024-01-14 is projected to range from 13.0 to 18.4
- 2024-01-21 is projected to range from 11.5 to 17.5
- 2024-01-28 is projected to range from 10.1 to 16.4
- This week, 5 modelling groups contributed 8 independent forecasting models on Influcast. Contributing teams:
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Queen Mary University of London
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure shows the number ILI cases per 1,000 reported in Italy each week from October, 22 through December, 24, 2023 and forecasted new weekly ILI cases per 1,000 through January, 21, 2024.
- We note a surge in the incidence of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) compared to the previous week. This marks the highest incidence recorded since the 1999-2000 influenza season, the earliest period for which data is currently available. The Influcast ensemble projects a relatively steady trajectory for the epidemic in the upcoming weeks, with possibility of a continued increase in cases over the next two weeks.
- At the national level, ILI incidence per 1,000 for the weeks ending on:
- 2023-12-31 is projected to range from 15.2 to 20.2
- 2024-01-07 is projected to range from 13.9 to 20.7
- 2024-01-14 is projected to range from 11.9 to 20.4
- 2024-01-21 is projected to range from 10.2 to 19.8
- This week, 4 modelling groups contributed 7 independent forecasting models on Influcast. Contributing teams:
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Queen Mary University of London
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure shows the number ILI cases per 1,000 reported in Italy each week from October, 22 through December, 17, 2023 and forecasted new weekly ILI cases per 1,000 through January, 14, 2024.
- We highlight a notable surge in epidemic activity compared to the previous week, bringing this year's figures in close proximity to those observed during the 2022/23 season. The Influcast Ensemble anticipates a relatively steady progression of the epidemic in the upcoming weeks. However, we acknowledge the presence of wide confidence intervals, signifying the uncertainties inherent in this epidemic phase. These uncertainties stem from various factors, including behavioural changes and seasonality.
- At the national level, ILI incidence per 1,000 for the weeks ending on:
- 2023-12-24 is projected to range from 12.4 to 17.1
- 2023-12-31 is projected to range from 11.4 to 17.6
- 2024-01-07 is projected to range from 9.9 to 17.6
- 2024-01-14 is projected to range from 8.4 to 16.8
- This week, 4 modelling groups contributed 6 independent forecasting models on Influcast. Contributing teams:
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Queen Mary University of London
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure shows the number ILI cases per 1,000 reported in Italy each week from October, 22 through December, 10, 2023 and forecasted new weekly ILI cases per 1,000 through January, 7, 2024.
- Influcast Ensemble projects a gradual decline in epidemic activity in the next three weeks, with an overall ILI incidence below the level of the past 22/23 influenza season. The ensemble forecast indicates we are near an early seasonal peak, although this is the most uncertain part of the seasonal flu epidemic due to considerable behavioural changes at the population level, such as holiday school and workplaces closure
-
At the national level, ILI incidence per 1,000 for the weeks ending on:
- 2023-12-17 is projected to range from 9.6 to 13.2
- 2023-12-24 is projected to range from 8.3 to 13.3
- 2023-12-31 is projected to range from 7.1 to 12.9
- 2024-01-07 is projected to range from 6.0 to 12.6
- In 15 regions (Abruzzo, Calabria, Campania, Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lazio, Liguria, Lombardia, Provincia autonoma di Bolzano, Piemonte, Puglia, Toscana, Umbria, Valle d'Aosta, Veneto), the Influcast Ensemble anticipates a decline in the epidemic over the next three weeks, while an increase is still projected for 6 regions (Basilicata, Marche, Molise, Provincia autonoma di Trento, Sardegna, Sicilia).
-
This week, 4 modelling groups contributed 7 independent forecasting models on Influcast. Contributing teams:
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Queen Mary University of London
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure shows the number ILI cases per 1,000 reported in Italy each week from October, 22 through December, 3, 2023 and forecasted new weekly ILI cases per 1,000 through December, 31, 2023.
- Influcast Ensemble projects a moderate gradual decline in epidemic activity the next three weeks, with an overall ILI incidence below the level of the past 22/23 influenza season. The ensemble forecast indicates we are nearing an early seasonal peak, although this is the most uncertain part of the seasonal flu epidemic due to considerable behavioural changes at the population level, such as holiday school and workplaces closure
- We observe significant regional heterogeneity, with approximately half of the regions anticipating an increase in incidence over the next four weeks (Campania, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lazio, Marche, Molise, Provincia autonoma di Trento, Sardegna, Sicilia, Umbria), while the remaining regions are expected to experience a decrease in incidence during the same period (Abruzzo, Emilia Romagna, Liguria, Lombardia, Piemonte, Puglia, Toscana, Veneto)
- ILI incidence per 1,000 for the weeks ending on:
- 2023-12-10 is projected to range from 9.9 to 13.3
- 2023-12-17 is projected to range from 9.2 to 14.3
- 2023-12-24 is projected to range from 8.4 to 14.8
- 2023-12-31 is projected to range from 7.6 to 15.2
- This week, 4 modelling groups contributed 7 independent forecasting models on Influcast. Contributing teams: CSL_PoliTo, EpiQMUL, ev_and_modelers, and ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.