The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 patients reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to March 23, 2025 (week 12), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to April 20, 2025 (week 16). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- This week's forecasts indicate that the incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) will continue to decline over the next four weeks, after reaching the seasonal peak in previous weeks.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses per 1,000 patients in the weeks ending on:
- March 30, 2025 (week 13) is expected to be between 5.5 and 6.7 (low intensity/baseline level)
- April 6, 2025 (week 14) is expected to be between 4.5 and 6.0 (low intensity/baseline level)
- April 13, 2025 (week 15) is expected to be between 3.7 and 5.5 (baseline level)
- April 20, 2025 (week 16) is expected to be between 3.1 and 5.1 (baseline level)
- At the regional level, a decrease in ILI activity is expected across all regions.
- A special thanks to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, University of Padua
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, University of Padua
- Queen Mary University of London
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Polytechnic University of Turin
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 patients reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to March 16, 2025 (week 11), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to April 13, 2025 (week 15). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- This week's forecasts indicate that the incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) will continue to decline over the next four weeks, after reaching the seasonal peak in previous weeks.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses per 1,000 patients in the weeks ending on:
- March 23, 2025 (week 12) is expected to be between 6.0 and 7.4 (low intensity)
- March 30, 2025 (week 13) is expected to be between 4.7 and 6.5 (low intensity/baseline level)
- April 6, 2025 (week 14) is expected to be between 3.7 and 5.7 (low intensity/baseline level)
- April 13, 2025 (week 15) is expected to be between 3.0 and 5.1 (baseline level)
- At the regional level, a decrease in ILI activity is expected across all regions.
- A special thanks to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, University of Padua
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, University of Padua
- Queen Mary University of London
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Polytechnic University of Turin
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 patients reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to March 10, 2025 (week 10), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to April 6, 2025 (week 14). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- This week's forecasts indicate that the incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) will continue to decline over the next four weeks, after reaching the seasonal peak in previous weeks.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses per 1,000 patients in the weeks ending on:
- March 16, 2025 (week 11) is expected to be between 6.9 and 8.6 (low intensity)
- March 23, 2025 (week 12) is expected to be between 5.4 and 7.6 (low intensity)
- March 30, 2025 (week 13) is expected to be between 4.3 and 6.7 (low intensity)
- April 6, 2025 (week 14) is expected to be between 3.3 and 6.0 (low intensity)
- At the regional level, a decrease in ILI activity is expected across all regions.
- A special thanks to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, University of Padua
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, University of Padua
- Queen Mary University of London
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Polytechnic University of Turin
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 patients reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to March 3, 2025 (week 9), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to March 30, 2025 (week 13). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- This week's forecasts indicate that the incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) will continue to decline over the next four weeks, after reaching the seasonal peak in previous weeks.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses per 1,000 patients in the weeks ending on:
- March 9, 2025 (week 10) is expected to be between 8.4 and 9.9 (low intensity)
- March 16, 2025 (week 11) is expected to be between 6.7 and 8.8 (low intensity)
- March 23, 2025 (week 12) is expected to be between 5.3 and 8.0 (low intensity)
- March 30, 2025 (week 13) is expected to be between 4.1 and 7.0 (low intensity)
- At the regional level, a decrease in ILI activity is expected across all regions.
- A special thanks to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, University of Padua
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, University of Padua
- Queen Mary University of London
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Polytechnic University of Turin
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 patients reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to February and 23, 2025 (week 8), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to March 23, 2025 (week 12). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- This week's forecasts indicate that the incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) will continue to decline over the next four weeks, after reaching the seasonal peak in previous weeks.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses per 1,000 patients in the weeks ending on:
- March 2, 2025 (week 9) is expected to be between 9.5 and 11.4 (medium/low intensity)
- March 9, 2025 (week 10) is expected to be between 7.5 and 10.2 (low intensity)
- March 16, 2025 (week 11) is expected to be between 5.9 and 9.2 (low intensity)
- March 23, 2025 (week 12) is expected to be between 4.5 and 8.1 (low intensity)
- At the regional level, a decrease in ILI activity is expected across all regions.
- A special thanks to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, University of Padua
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, University of Padua
- Queen Mary University of London
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Polytechnic University of Turin
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 patients reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to February and 16, 2025 (week 7), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to March 16, 2025 (week 11). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- This week's forecasts indicate that the incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) will continue to decline over the next four weeks, after reaching the seasonal peak in previous weeks.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses per 1,000 patients in the weeks ending on:
- February 23, 2025 (week 8) is expected to be between 11.0 and 13.0 (medium/low intensity)
- March 2, 2025 (week 9) is expected to be between 8.8 and 11.8 (medium/low intensity)
- March 9, 2025 (week 10) is expected to be between 6.9 and 10.6 (low intensity)
- March 16, 2025 (week 11) is expected to be between 5.3 and 9.5 (low intensity)
- At the regional level, a decrease in ILI activity is expected across all regions.
- A special thanks to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, University of Padua
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, University of Padua
- Queen Mary University of London
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Polytechnic University of Turin
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 patients reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to February and 9, 2025 (week 6), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to March 9, 2025 (week 10). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- The incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) is expected to decrease over the next four weeks, indicating that we have passed the seasonal peak.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illness per 1,000 patients in the weeks ending on:
- February 16, 2025 (week 7) is expected to be between 11.9 and 13.9 (moderate intensity)
- February 23, 2025 (week 8) is expected to be between 9.4 and 12.5 (moderate/low intensity)
- March 2, 2025 (week 9) is expected to be between 7.5 and 11.3 (moderate/low intensity)
- March 9, 2025 (week 10) is expected to be between 5.5 and 9.9 (low intensity)
- At the regional level, a decrease in ILI activity is expected in all regions.
- This week, 7 research groups contributed with 10 independent forecasting models on Influcast. A thank you to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, University of Padua
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, University of Padua
- Queen Mary University of London
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Polytechnic University of Turin
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 patients reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to February 2, 2025 (week 5), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to March 2, 2025 (week 9). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- It is expected that the incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) will decrease over the next four weeks, indicating the possible achievement of the seasonal peak in the previous week.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses per 1,000 patients in the weeks ending on:
- February 9, 2025 (week 6) is expected to be between 13.7 and 16.3 (medium intensity)
- February 16, 2025 (week 7) is expected to be between 11.6 and 15.5 (medium intensity)
- February 23, 2025 (week 8) is expected to be between 9.6 and 14.5 (medium/low intensity)
- March 2, 2025 (week 9) is expected to be between 7.7 and 13.4 (medium/low intensity)
- At the regional level, 15 regions (Basilicata, Campania, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lazio, Liguria, Molise, Autonomous Province of Trento, Piedmont, Apulia, Sardinia, Sicily, Tuscany, Umbria, Aosta Valley, Veneto) are expected to experience low ILI activity in the coming weeks, while 6 regions (Abruzzo, Calabria, Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy, Marche, Autonomous Province of Bolzano) will experience medium intensity.
- This week, 7 research groups contributed with 10 independent forecasting models on Influcast. A thank you to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, University of Padua
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, University of Padua
- Queen Mary University of London
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Polytechnic University of Turin
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- Fondazione ISI
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 patients reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to January 26, 2025 (week 4), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to February 23, 2025 (week 8). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- The incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) is expected to decrease over the next four weeks. However, the very wide prediction intervals indicate a period of significant epidemic uncertainty.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses per 1,000 patients in the weeks ending on:
- February 2, 2025 (week 5) is expected to range between 14.8 and 18.3 (medium/high intensity)
- February 9, 2025 (week 6) is expected to range between 13.3 and 18.8 (medium/high intensity)
- February 16, 2025 (week 7) is expected to range between 11.7 and 18.7 (medium/high intensity)
- February 23, 2025 (week 8) is expected to range between 9.5 and 18.5 (medium/high intensity)
- At the regional level, 8 regions (Campania, Lazio, Liguria, Molise, Autonomous Province of Bolzano, Autonomous Province of Trento, Piedmont, Valle d'Aosta) are expected to experience low ILI activity in the coming weeks, while 13 regions (Abruzzo, Basilicata, Calabria, Emilia-Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lombardy, Marche, Apulia, Sardinia, Sicily, Tuscany, Umbria, Veneto) are expected to experience medium intensity.
- This week, 6 research groups contributed 12 independent forecasting models to Influcast. A special thanks to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, University of Padua
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, University of Padua
- Queen Mary University of London
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Polytechnic University of Turin
- Fondazione ISI
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 patients reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to January 12, 2025 (week 2), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to February 9, 2025 (week 6). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- The incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) is expected to remain stable over the next four weeks.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses per 1,000 patients in the weeks ending on:
- January 19, 2025 (week 3) is expected to be between 12.7 and 15.0 (moderate intensity)
- January 26, 2025 (week 4) is expected to be between 12.3 and 15.8 (moderate intensity)
- February 2, 2025 (week 5) is expected to be between 11.9 and 16.3 (moderate intensity)
- February 9, 2025 (week 6) is expected to be between 10.8 and 16.4 (low/moderate intensity)
- The models also indicate the possible peak of influenza virus spread in the coming weeks.
- At the regional level, it is expected that 9 regions (Calabria, Campania, Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Liguria, Autonomous Province of Bolzano, Piedmont, Valle d'Aosta) will experience low ILI activity in the coming weeks, while 12 regions (Abruzzo, Basilicata, Lazio, Lombardy, Marche, Molise, Autonomous Province of Trento, Puglia, Sardinia, Sicily, Tuscany, Umbria) will experience moderate intensity.
- This week, 6 research groups contributed with 10 independent forecasting models on Influcast. A special thanks to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, University of Padua
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, University of Padua
- Queen Mary University of London
- Bruno Kessler Foundation - Health Emergencies
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Polytechnic University of Turin
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 patients reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to January 5, 2025 (week 1), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to February 2, 2025 (week 5). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- The incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) is expected to remain stable over the next four weeks.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses per 1,000 patients for the weeks ending on:
- January 12, 2025 (week 2) is expected to range from 10.3 to 12.1 (low/medium intensity)
- January 19, 2025 (week 3) is expected to range from 9.9 to 12.6 (low/medium intensity
- January 26, 2025 (week 4) is expected to range from 9.5 to 13.0 (low/medium intensity
- February 2, 2025 (week 5) is expected to range from 8.9 to 13.3 (low/medium intensity
- Models also indicate a significant increase in the spread of influenza viruses. This could result in a subsequent rise in ILI cases.
- At the regional level, it is expected that 13 regions (Calabria, Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Liguria, Lombardia, Molise, Provincia autonoma di Trento, Piemonte, Sardegna, Sicilia, Umbria, Valle d'Aosta, Veneto) will experience low ILI activity in the coming weeks, while 8 regions (Abruzzo, Basilicata, Campania, Lazio, Marche, Provincia autonoma di Bolzano, Puglia, Toscana) are expected to experience moderate intensity.
- This week, 7 research groups contributed with 11 independent forecasting models on Influcast. A thank you to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, University of Padua
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, University of Padua
- Queen Mary University of London
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Polytechnic University of Turin
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 patients reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to December 29, 2024 (week 52), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to January 26, 2025 (week 4). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- The incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) is expected to decrease over the next four weeks, remaining significantly lower than the levels observed during the same weeks of the 2023-2024 season.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses per 1,000 patients for the weeks ending on:
- January 5, 2025 (week 1) is expected to range from 8.0 to 11.1 (low intensity)
- January 12, 2025 (week 2) is expected to range from 7.2 to 10.6 (low intensity)
- January 19, 2025 (week 3) is expected to range from 6.3 to 10.5 (low intensity)
- January 26, 2025 (week 4) is expected to range from 5.7 to 10.1 (low intensity)
- National forecasts suggest that we may have reached, or even surpassed, the peak of influenza-like illnesses (ILI), attributed to a variety of respiratory pathogens. However, the models also indicate a significant increase in the spread of influenza viruses. This could result in a subsequent rise in ILI cases.
- At the regional level, it is expected that 16 regions (Abruzzo, Basilicata, Calabria, Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lazio, Lombardia, Marche, Autonomous Province of Bolzano, Autonomous Province of Trento, Piemonte, Puglia, Sicilia, Umbria, Valle d'Aosta, Veneto) will experience low ILI activity in the coming weeks, while 5 regions (Campania, Liguria, Molise, Sardegna, Toscana) are expected to experience moderate intensity.
- This week, 7 research groups contributed with 11 independent forecasting models on Influcast. A thank you to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, University of Padua
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, University of Padua
- Queen Mary University of London
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Polytechnic University of Turin
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 patients reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to December 22, 2024 (week 51), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to January 19, 2025 (week 3). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- The incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) is expected to remain stable over the next four weeks, staying significantly lower than the levels observed during the same weeks of the 2023-2024 season.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses per 1,000 patients for the weeks ending on:
- December 29, 2024 (week 52) is projected to range from 9.7 to 11.1 (intensity: low)
- January 5, 2025 (week 1) is projected to range from 9.2 to 11.3 (intensity: low/medium)
- January 12, 2025 (week 2) is projected to range from 8.7 to 11.6 (intensity: low/medium)
- January 19, 2025 (week 3) is projected to range from 8.1 to 11.6 (intensity: low/medium)
- At the regional level, it is expected that 9 regions (Emilia Romagna, Lombardia, Provincia autonoma di Bolzano, Provincia autonoma di Trento, Piemonte, Puglia, Sicilia, Valle d'Aosta, Veneto) will experience low ILI intensity in the coming weeks, while 10 regions (Abruzzo, Basilicata, Calabria, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lazio, Liguria, Marche, Molise, Toscana, Umbria) are expected to experience medium intensity, and 2 (Campania, Sardegna) high intensity
- When interpreting these results, it is important to consider that the models also predict a significant increase in the incidence of ILI cases attributable to type A influenza viruses, based on the most recent trends in virological surveillance. Although current influenza activity remains low and may not yet be significantly reflected in ILI rates, it is expected to rise in the coming weeks, potentially leading to a corresponding increase in ILI cases.
- This week, 5 research groups contributed with 9 independent forecasting models on Influcast. A special thanks to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, Università degli Studi di Padova
- Queen Mary University of London
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 patients reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to December 15, 2024 (week 50), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to January 12, 2025 (week 2). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- The incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) is expected to remain stable over the next four weeks, staying significantly lower than the levels observed during the same weeks of the 2023-2024 season. At present, there are no clear indications of a peak in the short term.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses per 1,000 patients for the weeks ending on:
- December 22, 2024 (week 51) is projected to range from 8.4 to 11.0 (intensity: low)
- December 29, 2024 (week 52) is projected to range from 7.9 to 11.8 (intensity: low/medium)
- January 5, 2025 (week 1) is projected to range from 7.3 to 11.7 (intensity: low/medium)
- January 12, 2025 (week 2) is projected to range from 6.7 to 13.5 (intensity: low/medium)
- At the regional level, it is expected that 11 regions (Abruzzo, Campania, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lombardy, Molise, Autonomous Province of Trento, Sardinia, Sicily, Umbria, Aosta Valley, Veneto) will experience low ILI intensity in the coming weeks, while 9 regions (Basilicata, Calabria, Emilia Romagna, Lazio, Liguria, Marche, Piedmont, Apulia, Tuscany) are expected to experience medium intensity.
- When interpreting these results, it is important to consider that the models also predict a significant increase in the incidence of ILI cases attributable to type A influenza viruses, based on the most recent trends in virological surveillance. Although current influenza activity remains low and may not yet be significantly reflected in ILI rates, it is expected to rise in the coming weeks, potentially leading to a corresponding increase in ILI cases.
- This week, 7 research groups contributed with 11 independent forecasting models on Influcast. A special thanks to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, Università degli Studi di Padova
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, Universita` degli Studi di Padova
- Queen Mary University of London
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 patients reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to December 8, 2024 (week 49), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to January 5, 2025 (week 1). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- The incidence of Influenza-Like Illnesses (ILI) is expected to remain stable over the next 4 weeks, following a significantly slower growth compared to that observed during the same weeks of the 2023-2024 season.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) per 1,000 patients for the weeks ending on:
- December 15, 2024 (week 50) is expected to range from 7.5 to 10.1 (low intensity)
- December 22, 2024 (week 51) is expected to range from 7.0 to 10.3 (low intensity)
- December 29, 2024 (week 52) is expected to range from 6.6 to 10.5 (low intensity)
- January 5, 2024 (week 1) is expected to range from 6.0 to 11.8 (low to medium intensity)
- At the subnational level, all regions are expected to experience low intensity ILI activity over the next weeks, with the exception of Piemonte where medium intensity is expected.
- When interpreting these results, it is important to consider that the models also project a significant increase in influenza activity, based on the latest trends in virological detections. While current influenza activity remains low and may not yet be significantly reflected in ILI rates, it is expected to grow in the coming weeks, which could lead to a corresponding increase in ILI.
- This week, 7 research groups contributed with 11 independent forecasting models on Influcast. A special thanks to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, Università degli Studi di Padova
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, Universita` degli Studi di Padova
- Queen Mary University of London
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 inhabitants reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to December 1, 2024 (week 48), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to December 29, 2024 (week 52). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- The incidence of Influenza-Like Illnesses (ILI) is expected to remain stable over the next 4 weeks, following a significantly slower growth compared to that observed during the same weeks of the 2023-2024 season.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) per 1,000 patients for the weeks ending on:
- December 8, 2024 (week 49) is expected to range from 7.0 to 9.1 (low intensity)
- December 15, 2024 (week 50) is expected to range from 6.6 to 10.1 (low intensity)
- December 22, 2024 (week 51) is expected to range from 6.1 to 10.2 (low intensity)
- December 29, 2024 (week 52) is expected to range from 5.7 to 10.6 (low intensity)
- At the subnational level, all regions are expected to experience low intensity ILI activity over the next weeks.
- When interpreting these results, it is important to consider that the models also project an increase in influenza activity, based on the latest trends in virological detections. While current influenza activity remains very low and may not yet be significantly reflected in ILI rates, it is expected to grow in the coming weeks, which could lead to a corresponding increase in ILI.
- This week, 7 research groups contributed with 11 independent forecasting models on Influcast. A special thanks to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, Università degli Studi di Padova
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, Universita` degli Studi di Padova
- Queen Mary University of London
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health (IPLESP) at the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM)
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 inhabitants reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to November 24, 2024 (week 47), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to December 22, 2024 (week 51). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- The incidence of Influenza-Like Illnesses (ILI) is expected to increase over the next 4 weeks, following a slower growth compared to that observed during the same weeks of the 2023-2024 season.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) per 1,000 patients for the weeks ending on:
- December 1, 2024 (week 48) is expected to range from 8.0 to 9.5 (low intensity)
- December 8, 2024 (week 49) is expected to range from 7.8 to 10.7 (low intensity)
- December 15, 2024 (week 50) is expected to range from 7.4 to 12.1 (low to medium intensity)
- December 22, 2024 (week 51) is expected to range from 6.9 to 13.5 (low to medium intensity)
- The incidence of influenza-like illnesses is expected to increase in all regions. Specifically, for week 50 (December 15, 2024), the following is expected:
- Low intensity: Campania, Liguria, Marche, Molise, Autonomous Province of Bolzano, Autonomous Province of Trento, Puglia, Sicily, Valle d'Aosta, Veneto
- Medium intensity: Abruzzo, Basilicata, Calabria, Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lazio, Lombardia, Piemonte, Sardegna, Toscana, Umbria
- This week, 6 research groups contributed with 11 independent forecasting models on Influcast. A special thanks to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, Università degli Studi di Padova
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, Universita` degli Studi di Padova
- Queen Mary University of London
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Complex Systems Laboratory, Department of Electronics and Telecommunications, Politecnico di Torino
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 inhabitants reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to November 17, 2024 (week 46), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to December 15, 2024 (week 50). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- The incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) is expected to increase over the next four weeks, following a trajectory similar to that observed during the corresponding weeks of the 2023-2024 season.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) per 1,000 patients for the weeks ending on:
- November 24, 2024 (week 47) is expected to range from 7.3 to 8.3 (low intensity)
- December 1, 2024 (week 48) is expected to range from 7.7 to 9.6 (low intensity)
- December 8, 2024 (week 49) is expected to range from 8.0 to 11.4 (low to medium intensity)
- December 15, 2024 (week 50) is expected to range from 8.3 to 14.2 (low to medium intensity)
- This week, 4 research groups contributed with 9 independent forecasting models* on Influcast. A special thanks to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, Università degli Studi di Padova
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, Universita` degli Studi di Padova
- Queen Mary University of London
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.
The figure illustrates the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases per 1,000 inhabitants reported weekly in Italy from October 20, 2024 (week 42) to November 10, 2024 (week 45), along with the forecast of weekly new ILI cases per 1,000 up to December 8, 2024 (week 49). The shaded bands represent epidemic thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) developed by the ECDC (from bottom to top): baseline level, low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity, very high intensity.
- The incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) is expected to increase over the next four weeks, following a trajectory similar to that observed during the corresponding weeks of the 2023-2024 season.
- At the national level, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) per 1,000 patients for the weeks ending on:
- November 17, 2024 (week 46) is expected to range from 6.1 to 8.0 (low intensity)
- November 24, 2024 (week 47) is expected to range from 6.6 to 9.3 (low intensity)
- December 1, 2024 (week 48) is expected to range from 7.0 to 10.9 (low intensity)
- December 8, 2024 (week 49) is expected to range from 7.3 to 12.9 (low to medium intensity)
- This week, 5 research groups contributed with 10 independent forecasting models on Influcast. A special thanks to the participating groups:
- Complex Multilayer Network Lab, Università degli Studi di Padova
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Health Emergencies
- Team Networks in Disease Ecology, Universita` degli Studi di Padova
- Queen Mary University of London
- ISI Foundation
Ensemble forecasts combine predictions from different models into a single forecast. While they have consistently demonstrated reliability in past influenza and COVID-19 forecasting endeavors, it's important to note that even ensemble forecasts may not consistently anticipate sudden shifts.